UFC Vegas 58
Rafael Dos Santos vs Rafael Fiziev
What hasn’t RDA done in the sport? He’s been around forever, he’s extremely well rounded and he’s fought the best of the best for the past 14 years. He was supposed to fight Fiziev twice prior to this. First time it was canceled for visa issues and second time Fiziev got covid. RDA took on Moicono instead and beat the crap out of him. He was beating him so bad and the ref wasn’t stopping it, it looked like he felt bad for moicono and let off the gas a bit. Before that he went up to 170 and had a tough go of it, but he still was only losing to the top. This includes losses to Chiesa, Leon edwards, colby and Usman. He didn’t get finished by any of them and he was up a weight class. He’s now back at 155 where he should be. He’s saying all the right things and is completely dedicated to winning the title. RDA is one of the best fighters the ufc has to offer
Fiziev is a monster. He is calculated in the ring with his precision strikes and when he explodes he really explodes. He is the tiger Muay Thai striking coach. Has great takedown defense is strong and he looked good against Bobby green and Brad Riddell in his last fight. He did get taken down briefly by Riddell off a lazy leg kick. He never accepted the position and instantly got back up. Some of the most accurate and diverse striking you will see in the UFC
This fight is so interesting. RDA should not be slept on. Have to imagine RDA is going to come out with a wrestling heavy gameplan and really test the cardio of Fiziev. Fiziev has looked like the real deal and will be the better fighter on the feet. Before looking at the lines I capped it as Fiziev -145. At -210 I don’t see value on Fiziev. If the line continue to move that way I will take a small play on RDA. For now I’m still staying away
Caio Borralho vs Armen Petrosyan
Caio is my boy. We were all over him in his first DWCS fight against Aaron Jeffery’s and then we called his KO in his next fight. He is extremely fast, explosive and has excellent takedowns. He has natural timing and blasts through those double legs. He has massive power and trains with the likes of shogun and Damien Maia. His last fight saw him make a huge mistake and he kneed his opponent while he was still grounded. We got lucky and he didn’t get DQd (he def should have been), they took a point and it went to the judges. He won all rounds easily against a tough opponent. He really showed how good his ground game is. Kid as an ace on the ground.
Armen Petrosyan is 7-1 with all his wins coming by tko except his last win over Gregory Rodrigues. He hits very hard and throws to the body often. Mainly with kicks and he keeps his toes pointed to really jab into the liver. His most impressive win came by way of body kick ko. He was getting dominated in the wrestling game, but he never stopped trying to get back up. Every time he got back up he was firing. His cardio really held up well even getting grappled hard. Armen is an elite striker. He really struggles with takedowns, but he doesn’t get discouraged and he is always working his way back to his feet. Doesn’t accept bottom. Once he is standing he doesn’t need long to find the button. He hits really hard and is super accurate.
Rodrigues was having some success on the feet against petrosyan, he had him rocked a few times. This success was to his detriment. I think Caio can also have small success on the feet, like Rodrigues, but stay on the feet long enough against Arman and you are playing with fire. Caio is such a smart fighter and it’s one of the reasons I’m so high on him. He made a grace mistake in his last fight with that knee, he won’t make a mistake this time. Caio gets Arman down and dominates this fight on the ground. Armans ground game gets exposed on this one. Caio ITD
Douglas Silva De Andrade vs Said Nurmagomedov
Andrade is starting to get up there in age at 37. He’s a tank of a human and he’s on a 2 fight winning streak after alternating wins and losses for a while. He has good wins over berao and marlon Vera and he has losses to rob font, Petr yan and lerron Murphy. Andrade looked pretty good against Murphy early throwing super hard kicks and was able to take his back. He’s good everywhere and picked up a second round submission over Morozov in his last fight. That fight was a war. Andrade got his ass kicked pretty good in the first round before storming back, rocking Morozov multiple times and getting the sub
Said is khabibs cousin (not really, but both from Dagestan and they were reported as cousins when said came into the league) and is a very highly touted prospect. His one ufc loss is to raoni Barcelos and that fight was very close. He is a striker, but he does have that wrestling base you would expect with that last name. He trains out of Lions MMA He looked very impressive in his last fight with a quick knockout win. He’s long and likes to throw flashy strikes. He is not scared of the takedown and that allows him to throw these techniques whenever he wants. We saw this in his last fight as he threw spinning technique after spinning technique until Stamann tried for a takedown, got reversed and subbed out in 45 seconds. Super impressive
Douglas Silva De Andrade is no push over, but I struggle to see how he wins this fight. Andrade loses at range and he will not be able to get Said down. Said ITD
Jamie Pickett vs Denis Tiuliulin
Pickett is extremely athletic has an 80 inch reach and when he looks good he looks really good. Problem is he rarely looks good. He has a ton of wholes in his game including being defensively sound on the feet and wrestling. He lost his last fight to Kyle Daukaus with 1 second left in the round. He tapped to a D Arce and claims that his tongue got caught between his teeth and he was scared he was going to bite it off.
Tiuliulin is being given a second UFC fight after being sacrificed to Khizriev in his short notice debut. Tiuliulin is 10-6 and his style represents his record. He likes to stand and bang. He is willing to get hit to hit you. He does hit hard and he has one hell of a chin. He’s as tough as they come. He will not tap. He’s not particularly good anywhere. He’s tough and scrappy and that’s what got him here
Neither guy is ever going to be top 10 or even top 15, but I have to go with Pickett here. He should be the better fighter everywhere. I do worry a bit that tiuliulin may just out tough him, but Pickett showed his own toughness in that Holmes fight. Picket by Dec
Jared Vanderaa vs Chase Sherman
Vanderaas a big dude at 6 foot 4. Has a nice 1,2. Long time team quest guy with Dan Henderson. He is flabby and never looks like he is in the best shape. Slow and plodding…
I caught you. You are reading a Vanderaa vs Sherman breakdown. Don’t bet this fight. Don’t let your friends bet this fight. Neither guy should be in the UFC. There’s a chance either one of these guys comes out and looks very dominant. Let’s root for that. Because if so we can fade the shit out of them in their next fight. If betting anything it’s ITD, but please don’t even trust them with that. Don’t bet this
Michael Johnson vs Jamie Mullarkey
Michael Johnson had so much potential he just never could quite beat the top of the division. All he’s fought is tough dudes his entire career. He has decent wrestling and he has really good hands. Speed and power. Throws nice combinations. At times he can look like a world beater. I’ve been higher on him than most. He won us money in his last fight with that tko over Alan Patrick. He’s training partners with Rafael Fiziev at Sanford mma. Have to love that they are both in camp at the same time
Jamie mullarkey is a grinder. He pushes a strong pace and can break guys with toughness and tenacity. That is exactly what he did to devontae smith and Khama worthy. He likes to get inside range and make it a dog fight. He mixes in timely takedowns when needed. He trains with Alex Volkanovski and you can tell. He’s a poor mans version of Alex. That might not even be fair to say, but Alex’s style has def rubbed off some on mullarkey. He ran into the buzz saw that is Jalin Turner in his last fight.
This is the exact type of fight that Michael Johnson has been losing. Guys who make it dirty. Guys who take him down. Guys that bring the fight to him. Mullarkey is coming back from that ko a bit fast though. Seeing some early love for Johnson, but I think the play is Mullarkey. He uses wrestling and grittiness to beat the more technical striker in Johnson and maybe even finishes a broken and tired Johnson
Cynthia Calvillo vs Nina Nunes
Calvillo is on a quite the skid. She’s lost 3 in a row and she was finished in her last 2. She got crushed by Andrea Lee so bad her corner stopped the fight after 2 rounds. I’m honestly surprised she’s fighting again. She used to compete at strawweight and I think she was better suited there. She is a low output fighter and used to rely on her wrestling and just over all octagon control to win fights. Her last 2 fights she only managed 1 takedown and landed less than 90 strikes in those two fights combined.
Nina Nunes has lost her last two fights and was finished by Dern in her last fight. She’s married to the female goat and you have to think she learns a bit from her. She’s well rounded, prefers to keep it standing. She has a great win over Claudia Gadelha. She’s been putting in work with Tony Gravely. I love to see that. Great wrestler and boxer. She looks to be in tremendous shape.
I think the wrong fighter is favored here. Calvillo looks like a shell of herself. Nunes keeps it standing and wins a close fight
Aiemann Zahabi vs Ricky Turcios
This is a low level fight. I have not been impressed with either guy. Zahabi is too tentative on the feet and the shell defense he uses does not work well in the UFC. Turcios may be the most hitable guy on the roster, he doesn’t have good tdd, but he is tough and has a great guard. I lean Zahabi in this fight. Ricky will be more active, but Zahabi will land the harder strikes and possibly a takedown or 2. His entrances on takedowns are pretty good. Decent speed to em. The way the judges have been the harder strikes of Zahabi and wrestling will win it for him
Antonina Shevchenko vs Courtney Casey
Antonina is started as a striker. We’ve seen her struggle to keep the fight upright and as of late she’s had more success wrestling than striking. She throws a good one two. You can tell she knows the techniques, but she did not get the athletic gifts of her sister. She is slow and lumbering. She is big for the division. Roxanne wet blanketed her to a surprising win. She lost her last two fights to two good prospects in Andrea Lee and O’Neil. She has a nice win over lipski but actually utilized grappling to make that happen.
Casey is a bit of a grinder. She’s a tough girl and throws looping combinations. She straightened her punches a bit and utilized the front kick in her last fight and it worked well for her. Doesn’t have great takedown defense, can be hitable. She dates Drakkar Klose now. Don’t think it means much. May actually be a distraction.
This is a very close fight that will probably go to split Dec. Seeing a lot of people on the dog here, but I do lean Antonina. I think her one two is a little crisper and matches well with the more looping punches of Casey. Don’t get me wrong both girls will get hit often. I give the wrestling edge to antonina as well. Antonina by split
Cody Brundage vs Tresean Gore
Cody is a grinding wrestler. He lost his dwcs fight to William knight by tko in the first round. Worried about his chin a little in this fight. He likes to use his wrestling game to take guys down and control them. Athletic kid always in great shape. We called his last fight exactly and won a bunch on that ko prop. He’s struggled to get that wrestling going in the UFC so far. This is a kid that will never give up. He trains at factory X and has been sparring with PFLs new star Robert Wilkinson for this fight. I love seeing that. Should be prepared for a superior striker with a longer reach than him. Brundages last win wasn’t all good. He got hit a lot by Dalcha before locking in the guillotine.
Gore is someone in high on as an athlete. He’s an explosive wrestler with true one punch ko power. Every fight out he seems to improve. I picked him to beat battle and he struggled in that fight showing he still is a bit raw. Gore also has some good training partners and coaches including title challenger Jared Cannonier and Benson Henderson. I’m sure him and cannonier pushed each other all camp. The kid says he has true title aspirations and he has the physical gifts to do it.
I like Cody Brundage, but this is a bad matchup for him. I don’t think he will have success wrestling and he has too much of a questionable chin to stand with Gore. Gore gets the finish here and starts a run in the UFC
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Karl Roberson
I don’t know what to make of Kennedy. He has a massive 83 inch reach. He’s 9-3 with his losses coming in the third round to submission ace Paul Craig, to da un jung by brutal KO and he lost a split to Nicolae. Kennedy’s best attributes are his toughness and his gas tank. He has overcome adversity in every single one of his fights. He has good power and can push an amazing pace. He is very raw, but improving every fight. Has questionable takedown defense, and fight IQ, but never stops trying to get up
Karl Roberson looks like a defeated fighter. He’s lost his last 3 all by finish. Roundtree really demolished him. He is the definition of a busted prospect. At one point he was talking about how he wants to he an all time great. We seem very far from that. He’s athletic, has power in his hands with sharp striking and he actually has a good ground game as well. He just can’t seem to put it together
Roberson is down 10 inches of reach and may struggle with the volume, but I don’t see how you can bet either side of this fight and feel confident. Roberson has the tools to win, but probably won’t. Stay away fight for me
Ronnie Lawrence vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov
For as good as a fight that this is I think it’s relatively easy to cap. Ronnie Lawrence has all the skills to dominate Saidyokub. Saidyokub can be controlled with grappling and that’s exactly what Lawrence does. Lawrence can he hit and Saidyokub lands bombs, but Lawrence has great footwork and his striking is excellent too. Lawrence gets the dub here and dominates